these charts will surprise you

The trade war with China and its impact upon soybean sales has been front and center in today’s news. That is understandable given that China is our number one export market. However, there is a worldwide market for grains and we sell to a number of other countries, primarily Mexico, the European Union and Japan, but also Indonesia, Egypt, Taiwan and Vietnam. In addition to exports, our domestic use of corn and soybeans has risen. Consequently, even though the USDA is forecasting very large crops, you may well be surprised to know that the amount of corn and soybeans in inventory at the end of the year is not expected to be that large.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are prepared and released monthly. This report, known as WASDE, provides forecasts for the supply and use of both corn and soybeans for the US and the world. Many other crops are contained in this report as well. Kansas State University has an excellent website where they have produced charts based upon the data in the WASDE Report.

These charts will surprise you in regard to your belief about corn and soybeans as shaped by the news.

 

soybean exports down, but not as much as the news would indicate:

 

record domestic use of soybeans:

 

soybean ending stocks (inventory) are near the average of the last 5 years.

Once again, much lower than the news would indicate:

 

corn exports are at an all time high:

 

record domestic use of corn:

 

corn ending stocks (inventory) are modestly above the average of the last 5 years.

but historically, they are relatively low: